Israeli and U.S. actions to neutralize Iran and its terror proxies as near-term nuclear threats present major strategic and technical dilemmas for major opponents of the free world, most particularly China, with expanded peace prospects throughout the Middle East.
China Consequences:
Israeli and U.S. airstrikes that penetrated Iran’s detection and interception defenses to destroy or severely damage their nuclear facilities have significant consequences for China, an early supplier of Tehran’s nuclear expertise, military technology, and revenues as a customer for 90% of their crude oil exports.
It is unclear what involvement China may currently have in advancing Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions. Under pressure of a U.S. embargo supported by Western partners, in 1995, China, a signatory member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), suspended earlier plans announced in 1992 to provide Tehran with two nuclear power plants.
NPT prohibits all members from assisting any other state to develop nuclear weapons, and in addition, unrealistically requires that all nuclear exports from China be placed under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections to ensure compliance.
China has rejected sanctions on Iranian oil imports as violations of legitimate trade, typically attributing and labelling its origins to other countries such as Malaysia, a major transshipment hub. Accordingly, China customs data shows no Iranian oil shipments since 2022.
It is known that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has supplied Tehran with a web of air defense technologies and systems, which failed to deter Israeli and U.S. penetrations.
Iran deployed what appeared to be Chinese-made Shennong 3000/5000 air defense laser systems in late 2024, along with Negah radar complexes, which were easily evaded or defeated by Israeli forces.
And according to a 2017 report by Jane’s Defense Weekly, cited by a Chinese media network, Iran’s Negah air defense command and control system, which was active at the time of the Israeli strikes, is based on the Chinese JY-10 system.
Of special concern to China, the U.S. bunker buster bomb destruction of Iran’s deeply buried Fordo and Natanz nuclear enrichment and storage sites demonstrates vulnerabilities of their most vital CCP government and military command center.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which operates directly under CCP authority, has a subterranean command bunker at a 60-meter depth under the Western Hills, a mountainous region at the edge of the Beijing municipal area.
The U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear bunkers demonstrated to the CCP that such deeply buried strategic facilities are no longer out of reach of those massive blasters.
Middle East Implications:
Like Israel, other Middle East Gulf states within range of Iranian missiles have long been on the receiving end of attacks from Tehran and its proxy allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen.
Iran-funded militants launched missiles and drones at the UAE, which provoked a 2015 Saudi-led missile and bombing campaign in Yemen involving a coalition of nine countries from West Asia and North Africa that killed an estimated 24,000 people.
In 2017, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman denounced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as “the new Hitler of the Middle East.”
Saudi Arabia has blamed Iran for a 2019 drone and missile assault on two of its biggest oil installations, and Yemen’s Houthis repeatedly attacked Saudi cities and the capital, Riyadh, hitting close to the front gate of the Saudi government palace in 2021.
Three years later, after the UAE and Bahrain normalized ties following a decade-old Arab boycott of Israel imposed over a Palestine issue, President Trump attempted to persuade Saudi Arabia to follow suit.
A three-way deal negotiated by the Biden administration in 2023 would have committed Washington to help Riyadh with advanced U.S. weaponry if attacked and allow Saudi Arabia to develop a civilian nuclear program. In exchange, Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel and make certain concessions to Palestinians, potentially leading to a two-state solution.
Saudi Arabia, in turn, would grant U.S. access over regional airspace and agree to scale back strategic and economic relationships with China and Russia.
Concerned about war impacts on their economic growth, Saudi Arabia and the UAE hedged their bets by reaching detent with Iran in 2023 to avoid having to choose up sides.
Nevertheless, years of negotiations prior to Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel had brought Saudi Arabia to the cusp of a landmark deal for diplomatic recognition of Israel that well might have them joining with United Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan as a member of the historic Abraham Accords achieved during President Trump’s first term.
A fragile Trump-negotiated ceasefire between Israel and Iran can now potentially encourage the Saudis and other Arab states to set diplomatic ties with Israel as Accord members.
As special envoy Steve Witkoff said last week on CNBC: “We’re hoping for normalization across an array of countries that maybe people would have never contemplated would come in.”
Whereas working with Israel to contain a recently weakened Iran now appears far more attractive to Saudi Arabia and many Arab states than in previous years, ultimate hopes of Middle East peace, including Tehran, remain elusive so long as its present leadership regime remains capable of recovery and lashing out.
Nevertheless, with regard to outside-forced regime change, the Saudis, like others, are legitimately mindful of the chaos that ensued in Iraq after Saddam Hussein was toppled.
No, all should recognize that a presently weakened Tehran state doesn’t forever end disruptive Middle East risks.
But perhaps we can at least agree that it represents momentously encouraging progress.
Larry Bell is an endowed professor of space architecture at the University of Houston where he founded the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture and the graduate space architecture program. His latest of 12 books is “Architectures Beyond Boxes and Boundaries: My Life By Design” (2022). Read Larry Bell’s Reports — More Here.
© 2025 Newsmax. All rights reserved.
